Illinois Basin Poised for Huge Resurgence
The Illinois Basin is forecast to experience a tremendous resurgence of interest similar to that experienced in the 1970s, much in part due to the developing scrubber and export market and renewed interest in coal gasification and coal-to-liquids, according to Wood Mackenzie subsidiary, Hill & Associates, in its latest comprehensive review of coal production in the region.
"If markets develop, the Basin’s production is poised to expand more than two-fold in the next 10 years," said John Hanou, vice president, Hill & Associates. "Given the Basin’s tremendous reserve of low-cost, medium and high-sulfur coal, existing producers are all planning expansions, in addition, many newcomers also are entering the market with plans to develop a multitude of mines."
The Illinois Basin’s turn-around has been long-coming. The region suffered great losses due to Phases I and II of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, when utilities switched to low-sulfur Powder River Basin coal to meet the new mandates. By 2000, production had declined to 89 million tons from 145 million tons in 1989. In 2007, production rebounded somewhat to 97 million tons, due to shortages in the eastern U.S and new scrubbing at several power plants.
"Basin production capacity will probably expand to 103-104 million tons in 2008," said Hanou. "Based on our 10-year analysis, we have identified enough projects to suggest that Illinois Basin production could expand to more than 250 million tons per year by 2017 with an upside potential to produce more than 350 million tons, assuming demand is present."
The Illinois Basin contains a tremendous underground reserve base, which is five to 10 times larger than the Pittsburgh No. 8 seam reserve base in Northern Appalachia. As the surface reserves deplete and as demand increases, these reserves will likely be developed in the next 10 years.
The top three producers currently (Peabody, Alliance, and Murray) control 57% of the market; however, by 2011, we estimate that this will fall to about 42%. Peabody is likely to retain its lead in 2011, but if The Cline Group is successful in developing the mines that the company has proposed, Cline will likely become the largest producer in the Illinois Basin post 2011.
Hill & Associates' latest review of the Illinois Basin is published in the Coal Supply Service. This update encompasses Indiana, Illinois, and West Kentucky and includes mine-specific data on coal reserves, quality, production costs, and capacity at active, idled, and proposed mines. In total, more than 240 mines and reserves are analyzed.
